Drawing conclusions just three games into the season is admittedly premature. That said, it seems clear to me that we’ve got a pretty good grip on what this year’s Irish team is all about. As Charlie Weis himself has said before, you are what you are folks. And what the Irish are is a 2-1 squad with a very good offense, mediocre special teams, and a truly horrific defense. Granted, they’re a blown call (or calls) away from 3-0 but they’re also one Kirk Cousins overthrow from 1-2, so 2-1 sounds about right.
The good news is that the Irish are playing a mediocre Purdue team that just lost to Northern Illinois. But that’s pretty much where the good news stops. The bad news, on the other hand, flows free and plenty. That same Purdue team played a decent Oregon squad tough on the road, suggesting they’ve got something to give and can give it when properly motivated. Naturally, there’s nothing like a visit from ND to get the troops fired up, particularly under the lights at home….on a nationally televised game brought to you by ESPN. Plus, the Irish offense is going to be without its best offensive player (Michael Floyd, gone for the season), might be without a banged up Armando Allen, and will be led be a hobbled Jimmy Clausen (himself emerging as an all-world QB). Add to the above the fact that the Purdue running game is a source of strength – which matches up perfectly with ND’s most glaring weakness on defense – and you’ve got the makings of a surprisingly tough game on the road for ND.
I say surprisingly because coming into the season the Irish were expected to easily steamroll Purdue. Everyone marked this game up to an easy win, a warm-up of sorts for the USC game two weeks out. (By the way, that Washington game just got a lot harder, didn’t it?). Instead, I suspect the Boilermakers will put up quite the fight and, if history serves as a guide, they’ll get plenty of help from the goofs in stripes, who have made a habit of punishing the Irish every chance they get with brutal calls and non-calls so far this season. Seriously, the officiating has been atrocious this year, full stop.
All of the above makes this a tough game to call. The guys over at the Gold Sheet have actually picked Purdue to upset the Irish in one of their “key releases” (basically their highest conviction calls). And the spread has been narrowing throughout the week, starting at Irish by 8 before settling at 6.5. That usually spells doom. But the Gold Sheet folks don’t have the greatest track record in my book (I consult them every week for my Pick 5 and I always suck), and just because the spread is compressing doesn’t mean the Irish won’t still win.
In my view, this is a game where Weis can earn his paycheck from a coaching perspective. What’s clear from the outset is that the Irish are the more talented squad, even with some of their top players on the shelf. So now that Weis has won the talent war, he needs to win the strategic one, which will spell the difference in the end. What this should involve is a battle for good old time of possession. That is, Weis should do everything he can to keep his defense sidelined and let his big boys on the offensive line go to work on a suspect Purdue defense. We all know the Irish can go lights out on offense but I’d argue they’d be better served here by taking things nice and slow. Move the ball slowly and methodically down the field on the strength of your workhorses up front and a talented backfield that is deep enough to fill in for the injured Allen. This will require less from an injured Clausen, and by milking the clock Weis can force the Boilermakers to go on the defensive when on offense by airing it out. I’d much rather see ND’s secondary thwart an air attack led by a new QB and new coach rather than letting the running game gain any momentum.
Alas, my guess is things don’t go according to plan and this turns out to be a bit of a nail-biter. The breaks just haven’t been going ND’s way and the intangibles are clearly stacked against them. Plus, they have a frustrating history of playing down to their opponent’s level, and I can’t imagine why we’d expect anything different tomorrow. So my prediction is that the Irish manage pull off the victory but not without a bit of a scare: 31-24.
Go Irish.
