Eddyfication

Feeling a wee bit cocky and self-assured following the success of my Irish pick last week, I’ve decided to don my tin foil hat and peer into the crystal ball again this week.  Of course, one week doesn’t a trend make, but I’m going to work under the assumption that my skills at prognostication have finally begun to materialize after years of abject failure.

This is an interesting game on a host of levels, not least of involves the fact that ND-Michigan is one of the game’s all-time great rivalries.  Traditional and historical significance aside, what I find most intriguing about this match-up is that it involves two teams that are at a bit of a crossroads and have embattled coaches leading the way.  Mired in off-field controversy, Michigan is trying to find its identity as a program.  It’s young in talent as well as system (this being head coach Rich Rodriguez’s second season), and there are plenty of holes in the roster thanks to attrition (which came in the form of several offseason transfers that included the starting RB and QB) and injury (WR Junior Hemingway and DB Boubacar Cissoko are rumored to be out, and RB Brandon Minor is banged up).  The reality is that, while Michigan is normally expected to compete each and every year, the program is in the midst of a rebuilding cycle.  Knowing that, the reasonable part of Wolverine nation set expectations fairly low this year, knowing that RichRod probably needs a solid three years or so to get his type of kids into the system before a fair judgment could be made.  In the meantime, Michigan should be expected to take its fair share of lumps just as ND has done these past few years as Weis attempted to rebuild a program gutted by the ineptitude of the Willingham regime.  However, a fairly convincing win over Western Michigan has breathed new life into the Michigan faithful, and the lingering euphoria has sent expectations sky high.  For example, I gave a quick check of the Michigan fan site thewolverine.com and five of their six analysts predicted a Wolverine victory this weekend.

Well, those analysts are wrong.  And here’s why.  Something that should be obvious to anyone taking a reasonable approach to handicapping this game is that the Irish are simply the better team.  They are more experienced, they are more polished, they are deeper, and for once in a long while, they have athletes that are on par with those churned out in Ann Arbor.  I’m not saying that the Irish are necessarily more athletic, but at least they don’t need to worry about being “out-athleted” by opponents like Michigan anymore, this thanks to Charlie Weis and his staff’s extraordinary recruiting prowess over the past few years.  The Irish not only have a fairly established team that is coalescing nicely, but they’ve also got two of the best schemers in the game in Charlie Weis and Jon Tenuta.  Plus, the Irish have the added motivation of redemption, not only in the eyes of a still skeptical nation but also in their own minds, for their last visit to the Big House resulted in a 38-0 shallacking.  During that game, a freshman Jimmy Clausen spent the majority of the time on his back, and the Wolverines were unforgiving in pouring salt on the wounds of a rebuilding Irish squad.  Make no mistake, that will reverse itself this go-around.

This year, in my estimation, will be very different indeed.  Michigan is led by two very athletic yet very young quarterbacks.  Two freshmen, to be exact.  True freshman.  One of whom, Tate Forcier, has an incredibly cheesy website that makes me despise him even more.  These two young ‘uns are playing in their first legitimately competitive college football game, and in  an atmosphere as tense as can be.  And they’re playing against a defense that has its fair share of bonafide studs coming off a shutout of a decent offensive squad in Nevada.  Tenuta’s gameplan will involve plenty of blitzing and will undoubtedly throw a lot of different looks at the freshmen to confuse them.  My guess is the Irish stack the box with eight guys on most plays, moving SS Kyle McArthy up to play as a fourth LB to guard not only against the run but to also serve as a spy on the QB when Brian Smith is otherwise occupied.  That will force Michigan to beat the Irish through the air, which won’t happen.  I’ll take the likes of Blanton/McNeil/Walls/Gray over the Michigan receiving corps anyday.  Just picture it – the Irish DBs (among the best in the nation) jamming the shorthanded Michigan receivers and blanketing them across the field, while a scrambling freshman QB attempts to find them while under extreme duress.  Not gonna happen.  At least not often it won’t.

Meanwhile, the Irish offense will continue to solidify under an emerging Heisman candidate in Jimmy Clausen.  I predict another solid offensive showing, with the Tate/Floyd combo proving lethal once again.  I also expect to see a better game out of Armando Allen as well as a healthy dosage of Jonas Gray, making a victorious homecoming of sorts for the Detroit native.

This game will turn out to be a bit more lopsided than most expect.  The Irish offense will undoubtely continue to impress.  But more importantly, the defense will sustain its dominance from last week, and I’m guessing the Michigan offense will put the ball on the ground twice and toss up another couple of gifts to boot.  The Michigan QBs will pull off a few athletic plays but will find themselves overwhelmed by the Irish defense more often than not.  (By the way, I also predict a fair amount of trickery as Michigan tries to pull out all stops; an onside kick to start the game perhaps?).  Rodriguez would be best-served lining up and trying to smash it down the middle part of the Irish D, as they’ve shown weakness along the front four (Ethan Johnson, by the way, is playing out of position as a DT when he’s a natural DE).  Instead, Rodriguez will play the stubborn card and stick to what his offense is supposed to be.  And his team will lose as a result.  Michigan will be good again, but it won’t be this year.  They’re simply too young and too confused.  And the Irish are due for a little comeuppance.  Though the game will start off seeming evenly-matched, the Irish will pull away and come out of Ann Arbor with a score that suggests the game was closer than it was.  I’m thinking something along the lines of 27-14, which will help establish the Irish as legit contenders this year.  However, the party will likely be subdued with MSU on the docket for the following Saturday.  That, I’m afraid, will be a different story entirely for the Irish.  In the meantime, at least, we can rejoice in the suffering of the Skunkbears!